Asoba Documentation

Africa's Solar Potential

Current solar capacity across all of Africa is ~10GW. Roughly 60% of this capacity is within the SADC region.
Installable potential across both West and Southern Africa is roughly 120GW. When limiting to just Commercial and Industrial offtakers, there is a roughly $85B market size for solar development across Commercial + Industrial users, who use 70% of capacity.
CAGR estimates for actual new capacity addition from solar from 2020-2040 range from 5% to 8%
120GW can yield roughly 350TWh estimated solar production, which translates to ~$52B per year in electricity sales by 2040 based on average retail prices today.
Assuming 15% excess generation requirements for grid reliability, the addressable market for extra revenue generation from selling excess power to on day-ahead and power pool markets will be ~$8B per year by 2040. Given the primary buyers of electricity on these markets are state utility companies, consolidation in this excess sales space would allow market leaders to erase government hegemony over the electricity market. So a first mover advantage here is critical to being a long-term market winner.
To get into the weeds of electricity sales to day-ahead markets, there are four major markets in Africa. Asoba's initial focus is on the Southern Africa Power Pool - Africa's most mature and accessible market to independent power producers.